Lo dice il presidente della Banca Mondiale – qui ci sono 20,7° C stando il termostato che regola i termosifoni, in una sorta di aggiunta allo SREX, legata alle sue attività. Ha commissionato un rapporto all’Institute for Climate Impact Research di Postdam sugli impatti di + 4° C, in particolare nei paesi poveri, rif. per esempio il box a pag. 62 per l’Africa subsahariana e la sicurezza alimentare.
La parte finale riguarda le non linearità ambientali e sociali. Mi sembrano fatte bene il focus sulle temperature estreme (p. 37 e segg.) e le due appendici che spiegano i modelli per l’innalzamento del livello del mare e per la maggior frequenza delle ondate di calore. Bibliografia e grafici utili, ma già noti a chi segue le ricerche.
Conclusione:
It seems clear that climate change in a 4°C world could seriously undermine poverty alleviation in many regions. This is supported by past observations of the negative effects of climate change on economic growth in developing countries. While developed countries have been and are projected to be adversely affected by impacts resulting from climate change, adaptive capacities in developing regions are weaker.
The burden of climate change in the future will very likely be borne differentially by those in regions already highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Given that it remains uncertain whether adaptation and further progress toward development goals will be possible at this level of climate change, the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur—the heat must be turned down. Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen.
Da collegare al World Energy Outlook 2012 (riassunto) dell’EIA uscito una settimana fa. A parte la terza sezione sull’Iraq e quelle sui paesi produttori di combustibili fossili, sembra un’aggiunta al paper di Drew Shindell et al. su Science a gennaio.
Our analysis shows that in the absence of a concerted policy push, two-thirds of the economically viable potential to improve energy efficiency will remain unrealised through to 2035. Action to improve energy efficiency could delay the complete ‘lock-in’ of the allowable emissions of carbon dioxide under a 2° C trajectory – which is currently set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying time to secure a much-needed global climate agreement. It would also bring substantial energy security and economic benefits, including cutting fuel bills by 20% on average.
E limitare i profitti di BigOil & Coal? Ma non scherziamo.